Three legged race

Submitted by Lindsay
Melbourne Australia!

(3/2022) Most four-legged animals can get around quite well on three legs, but when three people get tied together, the only thing they can do is go around in circles.

And that is what we are seeing in the world today. The U.S, China and the EU are in lockstep, trying to maintain their balance, hiding their anxiety, and looking for a mis-step. If it were only them, something like a new world order might emerge, but they are saddled with two other players who are also doing the dance. Russia and Australia.

The first three are tied by trade and distrust, and not much more. The other two are tied by anxiety and trade, but in this case only as suppliers. In Russia’s case, it is gas; in Australia’s, it is iron ore and coal.

Australia is caught between America and China, which is a bit perilous, but is no worse than crossing against the lights, but Russia has a bargaining chip that Mr. Putin has slammed on the table and made his demands. ‘Hands off Ukraine’ – or I’ll stop sending gas to Europe.

Consternation, because cutting off gas to Europe would send their economies into a tailspin.

But guess what! Vladimir Putin has won!

The Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. All the threats, troops, planes and armaments – all for just that one main purpose, with several others waiting in the wings.

Poor Vladimir. His reputation as the ‘strong man of the east’ had suffered. His promise to the people of Russia and the few remaining bits of a once great empire that the USSR would come back in all its glory was a mirage stolen from Donald – or was it the other way round.

All he had left was this one territory. He’d managed to get Crimea back, which was possible because it had been part of Russia since 1773, but Ukraine had been, (apart from being invaded and occupied by any country that could invade), independent.

The old 37 autonomous regions in Russia, created over some years to give the west the idea that Russia was tolerant of different ethnicity and language, but were part of the whole, have long gone. But Putin’s worry was not about land, it was about loss of face and keeping the dream alive.

All of democratic Europe is part of NATO, with one exception, the Ukraine.

This country declared it wanted to be part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and it was the last of all the European countries to do so. The importance of this is that if one of the members is attacked, it will be defended by the rest. The west wanted Ukraine in NATO because this would give them an unbroken line from north to south, putting Putin under intense diplomatic pressure. The Ukraine wanted it too because they don’t trust their eastern

neighbour.

The threat he used is the only one he has: embargo. Allowing Ukraine into NATO means no gas to the west.

So, consternation, as he underlined the point by surrounding the Ukraine with the military, the armaments and paraphernalia of war.

The west snarled and said, ‘that’s what you think.’

The impasse lasted for a few days until the crack appeared.

‘Well, maybe not NATO yet.’ Someone in government briefly flashed a torch. Phew.

That was not the only reason, of course. Their huge manufacturing ability, cars and armaments, wheat, the latter a main export to America, are not enough to keep the economy afloat.

As a way to show how dire this is, here’s some recent and interesting stats on the Gross Domestic Product per capita of the one hundred and fifty countries that are listed. That is, the amount, in dollars each citizen receives on average each year.

The world average is $18,300. Russia is in 57th spot, at $27,000 per person. Where is the USA, I hear you ask. 13th with the first part at $60,000.

Top of the pops is Qatar with $128,000 per person, which is 750% higher than the average. Australia is at 21st at $49,000, 287% of the average; China is at 79 at $17,000, 98% of the average; and, Europe is 18th, at $54,000.

At the heart of this dispute is the inter-dependence of Europe and Russia.

Russia supplies 16% of Europe’s energy needs, and receives between 16% and 20% of its income from those exports. Germany in particular at risk, as they have now closed all their nuclear fuel plants, and a reduced supply would mean higher prices would impact on industry.

So, Russia and Europe are in lockstep on energy, just as Australia is in lockstep with China on iron ore and coal.

We and they are wedged in the corners of the three-legged race.

And the three main players are aiming for more than survival, they want superiority – or, in the case of Europe, equality. At the heart of this is their economic survival.

America’s total debt, as of 2021, was $28.9 trillion, of which China owns $1.06 trillion in the form us U. S. bonds. Not much, you think, but if it decided to dump them, the resultant interest rate rises would make the emerging hike (you know, the one that’s any-day-now) look like a reduction.

How much of China does America own? So far as Mr. Google knows, nothing.

Also, as of 2021, American imports from China were $506 billion, it’s exports $152 billion, leaving a gap of $355.3 billion.

Russia and China embrace, America rules the exchange rate, and I hand it to Vladimir – he has taken our minds off climate and COVID.