Too dry, too wet, too hot, or too cold.

Shannon Bohrer

(6/2023) For the last several years we seem to have experienced more severe weather-related disasters. We have hurricanes, extreme rain, or snow, and often followed by floods or droughts. The weather patterns seem extreme in both directions. Too dry, too wet, too hot, or too cold is becoming the norm. When discussing the weather, it is not uncommon for the experts to tell us that the extreme weather patterns we have been experiencing are related to global warming. Maybe more disturbing is that the experts tell us that we are only in the preliminary stages of changes. 

Often, the reporting of extreme weather events characterizes them as abnormalities. While we take notice of recent weather disasters, it would be difficult to say that the extreme weather is something new, or even unexpected. Several years ago, Houston Texas experienced three "once in 500-year floods" in just three years. The floods also re-drew and expanded the FEMA flood maps. People that previously never lived in flood prone areas find themselves needing flood insurance. In 2016 Maryland experienced a "once in 1,000-year event", when Ellicott City flooded. Then in 2018, we had another similar event, and Ellicott City flooded - again. While two "once in 1,000-year events" in just two years might seem unprecedented, from 2010 to 2015 the state of South Carolina experienced six such events.

Whether acknowledged or not, extreme weather is not an abnormality. They have become the norm. In 2019, the world experienced extreme heat waves, with record temperatures around the globe. Close to home temperatures in Portland went to 115 degrees Fahrenheit. While 115 seems high, in British Columbia, the temperature went to 121 degrees. In the United States, thirty-three records were broken, for the hottest temperatures ever recorded. Global warming is real, the earth is getting hotter and the oceans are rising. Is the world paying attention?

A critical element affecting our weather is the ocean temperatures which have increased worldwide. "The year 2022 was the ocean’s warmest recorded year and saw the highest global sea level." The oceans cover 70 percent of the earth, and the warming temperatures provide energy for hurricanes and simultaneously the melting of glaciers and sea ice. Adding to this, as the oceans warm, they expand which in turn raises sea levels. "The last 10 years were the ocean’s warmest decade since at least the 1800s." The oceans have taken the place of the canary in the coal mine, confirming the dire predictions.

The extreme drought in the western United States actually started in 2000. By 2020, it became "the driest two decades in the region in at least 1,200 years." In 2022, extreme drought conditions were in the national news every day. The majority of the entire western United States was experiencing a lack of rain and a lack of snowfall, which was greatly needed for lakes and reservoirs. Lake Powell and Mead were at extremely low levels and together they supplied the drinking water for fifty million people. In October 2022 it was reported that the Mississippi river was so dry, that barge traffic was halted. At one-point over2,000 barges were either backed up, halted and some were even grounded. Drought conditions encompassed over half the country.

A reporter on the national news was covering a story about the Mississippi river drought. The reporter questioned a river expert on the drought, and parapghasing his response, he said, it’s either drought or flood, and that is our new normal. His expertise and observation were confirmed earlier this year.

From December 2022 through March 2023, California experienced thirty-one "atmospheric river" events. I had never heard of an "atmospheric river," it sounded like a river in the sky, and apparently, they behave in that manor. Extremely heavy rain would come in from the ocean and flood large areas. The phenomenon then repeated itself, over and over for months. The extreme weather of rain and snow, entered the west coast and then traveled across the county, affecting numerous states and millions of people. One such event, occurring on January 10, 2023, carried a warning that thirty-four million people were under a flood watch. Thirty-four million people is around 10 percent of the country’s population.

The rain and snow fall this past winter and spring was so heavy that the drought-stricken Mississippi River was flooding. In less than six months the barges that could not move because of a lack of water were unable to move because of too much water. With the record floodings we have experienced this year, you might think the droughts are over. In some areas the droughts are over, but not all. Lake Mead has risen a little since its low point. Accordingly, "the Bureau Reclamation anticipates that the water levels will start to decline this spring." It is possible to experience two extremes simultaneously.

While the weather has changed, there are some unexpected consequences of the changing weather, that are not often reported. Last year the weather-related natural disasters we experienced displaced an estimated 3.3 million adults. That equates to about one percent of the population. Estimates are that one third returned to their home in about a week, while about a half million – never returned home. If one percent of the adult population is displaced and one third of those cannot return home, and extreme weather events are predicted to increase, what does that portend for the future?

Even homeowners that have not been directly affected by fires, hurricanes and flooding, will otherwise be affected financially. Insurance premiums are influenced by claims that have been increasing as fast as extreme weather events occur. It does not matter if you reside in an affected area, everyone’s home and property insurance premiums will increase. Additionally, as housing becomes uninhabitable or lost, because of weather events, there is a greater demand, and the cost of housing will continue to rise.

Too dry, too wet, too hot, or too cold defines the future. How will we grow food under drought and/or flooding conditions? Can we replace the housing that will be lost? What happens when 3, 4 or even 5 percent of our population is displaced because of weather, and half of them cannot return? While we are obsessed with migration from our southern border, a greater internal migration could occur from west to east, and south to north. The weather has changed and will continue to change.