Common Cents
Sustainable
peace
Ralph Murphy
(3/2015)
The Knesset or Israeli
Parliamentary elections are due to take place 17 March
pitting the incumbent, center right Likud party coalition
against its traditional internal foe, the Labor Party.
Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu has served as head
of this government since March, 2009 when he upset the
relatively liberal Kadima party and subsequently oversaw
the arrest and jailing of its leader Ehud Ohlmert on
corruption charges. Netanyahu seeks a fourth term as PM
and current polls indicate he should win by a narrow
margin.
While Israel idivided along the usual
international, socio-economic lines of liberal, social
spenders and a conservative, defense-oriented community -
it is relatively cohesive in business and foreign
dealings. It is the wealthiest nation in the Middle East
generating over $305 billion in 2014 and enjoys a
diversified economy with industry representing 31.2% of
output, services 64.7%, and agriculture at 2.5%. While
Israel is productive economically it has serious,
religion-based historic antagonisms with its neighbors.
Both the Muslim Arabs and Jewish Israelis have
international backers who passionately defend their
respective interests. Emotions run higher in this region
than in any other part of the world.
Muslims consider Israel an illegal state
stolen from them by a post World War II Jewish influx
which swelled the number of religious Zionists under
United Nations and British control. To the Israelis, the
state founded on 14 May, 1948 was a biblical "birth right"
and reflected justice as a return home for the diaspora
originally set forth by Roman Emperor Titus in sacking the
region and destroying the second temple about 70 AD - 40
years after Christ's crucifixion.
There are current efforts - especially in
the Arab world - to reestablish the state of Palestine in
that sector. The Palestinian state has been recognized as
an observer at the UN, and is entitled to treaty
participation, but there is virtually no definition as to
the nationŐs territory. France and Sweden also currently
work to embrace the hypothetical nation, and it has joined
the International Criminal Court (ICC) as a member in
pursuit of individual leaders responsible for aggressive
legal breaches such as genocide that cannot be tried at
home. The ICC is Hague-based but its decisions are not
binding at the UN. However, the UN can refer cases for its
consideration. Almost all 21 cases prosecuted by the ICC
thus far, have had to do with African leaders, but the
Palestinian Authority (PA) wants to bring the Israelis to
task for last summer's Gaza Strip violence. At the time
Israel responded to crude but troubling rocket attacks on
the southern region with overwhelming force. Up to 2,192
Iranian-backed militants and civilians were killed in the
Hamas-led enclave and 72 Israelis diedÉ including 66
soldiers. Thousands of injured were reported and Hamas
remains in power.
The Palestinian leadership appears
irreconcilably split between the West Bank Fatah party and
the Gaza Hamas. Fatah represents the Palestinians at the
UN and speaks for its 2.1 million Arab residents.
2,676,740 (2013) people live there to include East
Jerusalem's 197,000. The area has been occupied by Israeli
forces since 1967 when it was overrun and effectively
annexed by the Israeli army in the Six Day War. The
lsraelis also seized EgyptŐs Sinai peninsula, Syria's
Golan Heights as well as the Gaza Strip. Sinai was
returned to Egypt following normalization of relations
through the Camp David accords of 1978. Golan was lightly
populated, strategically valuable and easily retained.
Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 but maintains strong
economic ties to the area. They don't have to pay for
internal security under the current arrangement and do
have discreet trade ties with its 1.816 million residents.
The West Bank is a bit closer to the
Israelis governing its religious, and economic interests,
but a demographic headache in what many call the "world's
longest post World War II occupation". Fatah operates out
of Ramallah and while talking to the Netanyahu government
is openly hostile - as are the Muslim Arabs. Fatah has
effectively been disarmed of war materiel, but they do
have access to small arms, knives, and rocks that are used
to harass the Israeli military forces.
The 1967 conflict witnessed Israeli troops
take on Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraqi and Lebanese forces -
along with the support of 9 other Arab nations and the
PLO. Israeli dead reached 983 servicemen, but Egypt lost
over 10,000, Jordan 6,000, Syria 2,500 and the USS Liberty
came under attack by Israeli fighter jets and patrol
boats. Jordan and Egypt subsequently established full
diplomatic ties with Israel, but these are strained due to
the West Bank problems.
Muslim, Quran - based culture is very
aggressive with Sharia law allowing for amputation,
stoning and polygamy. A climate of hostility is prevalent
and while they're dangerous if you enter their Muslim
enclaves, they pose a limited threat to others - beyond
limited acts of terrorism. They seem to trust only family
or tribal friends, and cannot bond in common cause with
others for whom they have no loyalty . Israel also has its
divisions, but there is a strong construct to the social
structure that allows for regional survival and even
domination given the opposition's lack of coherence. The
Israelis are unlikely to change "the hearts and minds" of
the West Bank Muslims. Especially through acts of
violence, but if they find a continued presence to be cost
effective - they can probably maintain it.
Netanyahu is due to speak before a joint
session of the U.S. Congress on 3 March. This is just two
weeks before the scheduled, Israeli elections. His primary
focus appears to be on Iran. A concern that is supported
by most American voters. Many recall the hostage seizure
of U.S. diplomats by the Iranian Mullahs in 1979. The
economy doesn't appear an issue. Gaza is largely settled
for now, and the West Bank rarely appears in the Western
press. Israel will likely have border concerns barring
religious bridges as that does appear the source of
hostility. Occasional internal strikes are possible, but
more likely from the disaffected Israeli Arabs who
comprise 20.7% of the areaŐs population of 8,238,300.
Israel has to keep its anti terrorist defenses ready, but
that appears the main election issue as other factors are
reasonably stable.
Ralph Murphy is a former member of the CIA Headquarters Staff in Langley, VA.
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